President-elect Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan proposes a third round of stimulus checks of $1400 for most Americans. Yet while that could extend a helping hand to millions of households still suffering from the pandemic's economic fallout, it could be months until the payments arrive, analysts say.
The relief package's price tag is likely to face pushback from Republican lawmakers, who last year resisted Democratic efforts to pass a $2 trillion bill. Heights Securities analyst Hunter Hammond expects the ultimate package to be trimmed to $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion. But most analysts think lawmakers on both sides of the aisle will back the $1,400 direct payments, which economists view as a lifeline for many cash-strapped workers who lost their jobs or seen their income plummet during the pandemic.
Support for another stimulus package may gain steam given several developments that point to widening economic distress as the pandemic worsens, according to Ed Mills, an analyst with investment bank Raymond James. A weaker outlook for the labor market, with a bigger-than-expected 1 million jobless claims during the first week of January, as well as record number of COVID-19 infections and deaths could push lawmakers to support Mr. Biden's plan for additional stimulus, analysts say.
When would I get a $1,400 check?
Alec Phillips, chief U.S. political economist with Goldman Sachs, thinks the package could be passed in mid-February to mid-March. After the relief bill passes Congress, it must be signed by the president. After that, the IRS would distribute funds through direct deposit, mailed checks and prepaid debit cards.
In the first stimulus payments in April 2020, which directed $1,200 to eligible adults as well as $500 per child, it typically took two weeks to several months for payments to reach people. The second round of checks, which sent $600 to each eligible adult and child, required about a week for the funds to arrive via direct deposit.
But in some cases people experienced delays in receiving the money due to problems with their account information. Based on previous stimulus money payouts, and assuming Congress passes a new relief bill by mid-February, the checks could arrive in bank accounts by late February, although that would likely be a best-case scenario. If a package is passed by the end of March, people might get their checks by early April.
The caveat is these time frames assume that at least 10 Republican Senators support the package, allowing for 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a possible filibuster and pass the bill, analysts noted. If the Biden administration cannot muster enough GOP support, then stimulus backers could move to pass it under a process known as budget reconciliation. That parliamentary maneuver only requires a majority vote for legislation to become law, though it can delay passage.
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